FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.22 – 165.13

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.1 ±9.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 195.38Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 131.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 13.61Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.3 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 50.99Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 15.93Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 98.21Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5406, 4069, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5406, 4069, 7659

Auto

65.9 20%

Teleop

200.1 59%

Endgame

70.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5689, 2708, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5689, 2708, 7902

Auto

59.8 38%

Teleop

61.4 39%

Endgame

37.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score340.2pts

Blue projected score165.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.1
Score range: 117–388
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 266.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.1Season APEX250.3

65.9Auto59.8

200.1Teleop61.4

70.8Endgame37.6

33Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	46
teleop	279	50
endgame	89	69
foul	0	20
total	427	185

Result

Final score

427 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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