FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.9 – 137.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±9.8

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 24.42Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 16.69Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 143.79Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.3 ±10.5

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 49.49Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 105.55Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -17.15Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 3756, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 3756, 3161

Auto

41.6 23%

Teleop

96.9 53%

Endgame

43.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2386, 4907, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2386, 4907, 6975

Auto

44.5 33%

Teleop

47.2 35%

Endgame

41.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score184.9pts

Blue projected score137.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 90–233
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 266.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.9Season APEX397.3

41.6Auto44.5

96.9Teleop47.2

43.4Endgame41.4

50Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	53
teleop	159	64
endgame	16	69
foul	15	10
total	236	196

Result

Final score

236 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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