FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

481.36 – 285.08

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

577 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.5 ±10.5

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 337.4Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 17.51Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 126.45Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.7 ±10.5

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 179.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 47.14Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 58.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 11428, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

481.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1114, 11428, 9569

Auto

84.7 18%

Teleop

259.0 54%

Endgame

135.0 28%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7520, 3560, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7520, 3560, 4308

Auto

59.4 21%

Teleop

151.8 53%

Endgame

74.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score481.4pts

Blue projected score285.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.3
Score range: 237–529
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 264.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.5Season APEX390.7

84.7Auto59.4

259Teleop151.8

135Endgame74.2

59Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	46
teleop	301	133
endgame	164	89
foul	5	0
total	577	268

Result

Final score

577 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.