FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.52 – 400.81

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.7 ±9.8

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 57.63Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 26.15Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 216.74Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±9.8

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 103.83Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 288.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 8.43Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5596, 4920, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5596, 4920, 4678

Auto

48.5 18%

Teleop

159.2 58%

Endgame

67.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 2056, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11227, 2056, 10514

Auto

90.2 23%

Teleop

244.7 61%

Endgame

65.0 16%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.5pts

Blue projected score400.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.3
Score range: 254–448
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 263.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.7Season APEX569.2

48.5Auto90.2

159.2Teleop244.7

67.9Endgame65

51Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	107
teleop	234	199
endgame	87	91
foul	20	10
total	418	407

Result

Final score

418 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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