FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.82 – 171.41

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

493 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 617.5 ±9.8

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 69.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 145.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 205.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.2 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 49.66Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 75.9Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 45.85Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9562, 1360, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9562, 1360, 4476

Auto

55.6 13%

Teleop

215.6 52%

Endgame

145.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 7476, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2706, 7476, 7757

Auto

42.9 25%

Teleop

90.1 53%

Endgame

38.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.8pts

Blue projected score171.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 248.4
Score range: 124–467
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 262.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

617.5Season APEX267.2

55.6Auto42.9

215.6Teleop90.1

145.2Endgame38.1

69Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	35
teleop	238	19
endgame	187	84
foul	0	0
total	493	138

Result

Final score

493 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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