FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.64 – 166.34

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.3 ±9.4

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 8.24Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 237.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 47.58Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±10.4

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 126.21Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 55.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -15.16Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6875, 1325, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6875, 1325, 5689

Auto

59.0 20%

Teleop

181.2 62%

Endgame

50.5 17%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1305, 4976, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1305, 4976, 919

Auto

22.7 14%

Teleop

102.4 64%

Endgame

34.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.6pts

Blue projected score166.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.3
Score range: 119–341
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.3Season APEX355.9

59Auto22.7

181.2Teleop102.4

50.5Endgame34.5

56Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	62
teleop	172	108
endgame	91	78
foul	0	0
total	344	248

Result

Final score

344 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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