FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.91 – 137.43

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.6 ±10.4

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 19.69Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 145.21Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 14.01Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±10.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 108.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 6.7Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 22.29Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9575, 865, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9575, 865, 2708

Auto

55.9 32%

Teleop

70.4 40%

Endgame

50.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5409, 9580, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5409, 9580, 9659

Auto

41.3 33%

Teleop

52.2 42%

Endgame

31.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score178.9pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 90–226
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.6Season APEX304.3

55.9Auto41.3

70.4Teleop52.2

50.8Endgame31.5

7Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	40
teleop	97	14
endgame	52	3
foul	0	0
total	213	57

Result

Final score

213 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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