FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.07 – 198.19

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±10.4

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 26.78Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 143.24Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 40.05Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.2 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 41.28Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 125.91Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 31Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 7200, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9262, 7200, 5870

Auto

26.8 13%

Teleop

140.3 70%

Endgame

32.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 10015, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5672, 10015, 5036

Auto

36.6 19%

Teleop

119.0 61%

Endgame

40.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 150–258
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 264.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.4Season APEX348.2

26.8Auto36.6

140.3Teleop119

32Endgame40.6

30Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	65
teleop	96	150
endgame	81	20
foul	5	0
total	215	235

Result

Final score

215 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.