FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.58 – 338.34

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.7 ±9.8

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 44.52Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 61.65Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 13.41Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.8 ±9.8

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 36.06Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 135.19Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 167.09Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9263, 7712, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9263, 7712, 7659

Auto

32.3 27%

Teleop

71.3 59%

Endgame

18.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 4069, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1334, 4069, 2200

Auto

83.5 25%

Teleop

190.7 57%

Endgame

57.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score119.6pts

Blue projected score338.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -218.8
Score range: 72–386
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.7Season APEX519.8

32.3Auto83.5

71.3Teleop190.7

18.2Endgame57.6

11Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	56
teleop	44	179
endgame	31	67
foul	5	5
total	102	307

Result

Final score

102 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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