FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.13 – 39.83

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.6 ±9.8

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 58.67Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 203.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 52.52Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.2 ±11.6

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -16.34Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 9.72Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 46.45Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4476, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4308, 4476, 2386

Auto

69.8 22%

Teleop

169.2 53%

Endgame

77.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6975, 10514, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6975, 10514, 3560

Auto

18.0 44%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

26.6 65%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score315.1pts

Blue projected score39.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 275.3
Score range: -8–363
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 266.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.6Season APEX194.2

69.8Auto18

169.2Teleop-3.7

77.6Endgame26.6

31Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	17
teleop	197	5
endgame	76	12
foul	0	5
total	323	39

Result

Final score

323 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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