FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.61 – 249.51

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 112 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 574.8 ±9.4

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 137.89Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 226.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 45.81Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.2 ±10.4

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 22.63Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 140.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 86.55Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3161, 1325, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3161, 1325, 5596

Auto

66.9 17%

Teleop

225.6 57%

Endgame

101.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 9569, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6875, 9569, 9562

Auto

29.9 12%

Teleop

146.1 60%

Endgame

67.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score410.6pts

Blue projected score249.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.1
Score range: 202–459
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 265.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

574.8Season APEX323.2

66.9Auto29.9

225.6Teleop146.1

101.7Endgame67.7

28Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	13
teleop	245	23
endgame	160	77
foul	15	0
total	498	113

Result

Final score

498 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 112 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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