FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

695.95 – 100.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

729 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 935.7 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 284.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 341.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 69.7Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±9.8

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 5.17Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -2.59Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 98.13Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 1114, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

696 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2056, 1114, 7476

Auto

145.5 21%

Teleop

396.5 57%

Endgame

151.4 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2708, 9580, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2708, 9580, 4907

Auto

29.2 35%

Teleop

20.8 25%

Endgame

33.5 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score696pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 595.2
Score range: 54–743
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 262.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

935.7Season APEX335.5

145.5Auto29.2

396.5Teleop20.8

151.4Endgame33.5

46Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	186	63
teleop	407	65
endgame	136	53
foul	0	5
total	729	186

Result

Final score

729 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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