FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.43 – 490.73

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±10.4

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -19.67Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 46.36Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 21.74Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 634.6 ±9.3

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 183.14Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 134.1Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 173.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 919, 7757, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 919, 7757, 9659

Auto

6.6 15%

Teleop

16.7 39%

Endgame

19.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5406, 7200, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5406, 7200, 7520

Auto

89.6 19%

Teleop

297.7 62%

Endgame

95.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score48.4pts

Blue projected score490.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -442.3
Score range: 1–538
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX634.6

6.6Auto89.6

16.7Teleop297.7

19.5Endgame95.5

20Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	85
teleop	20	367
endgame	12	132
foul	15	0
total	66	584

Result

Final score

66 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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