FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

322.82 – 132.92

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.1 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 67.01Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 154.06Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 101.75Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±10.5

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 20.25Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 110.16Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 2.51Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 1360, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 1360, 11227

Auto

55.9 18%

Teleop

166.4 53%

Endgame

92.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 10015, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5870, 10015, 11428

Auto

29.2 22%

Teleop

82.7 62%

Endgame

21.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.8pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.9
Score range: 86–370
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 261.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.1Season APEX342.3

55.9Auto29.2

166.4Teleop82.7

92.2Endgame21.2

110Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	47
teleop	173	176
endgame	100	51
foul	0	10
total	307	284

Result

Final score

307 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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