FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.53 – 210.68

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

236 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±10.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 117.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 35.06Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 135.45Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 17.21Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 164.01Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 29.46Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 4920, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5409, 4920, 1305

Auto

66.8 24%

Teleop

162.4 58%

Endgame

49.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2200, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 2200, 5672

Auto

71.2 33%

Teleop

110.5 52%

Endgame

31.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287.5pts

Blue projected score210.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.8
Score range: 164–335
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 261.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.2Season APEX420.9

66.8Auto71.2

162.4Teleop110.5

49.3Endgame31.9

60Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	74
teleop	77	194
endgame	70	8
foul	15	0
total	236	276

Result

Final score

236 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.