FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.36 – 100.19

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.2 ±9.8

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 53Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 136.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 24.85Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±10.4

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 22.82Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 21.97Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 55.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2706, 4069, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2706, 4069, 772

Auto

41.3 19%

Teleop

119.6 56%

Endgame

53.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 5036, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9575, 5036, 4976

Auto

23.9 24%

Teleop

57.4 58%

Endgame

17.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score214.4pts

Blue projected score100.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.2
Score range: 53–261
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 263.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.2Season APEX291.2

41.3Auto23.9

119.6Teleop57.4

53.9Endgame17.7

93Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	38
teleop	138	28
endgame	36	46
foul	0	0
total	215	112

Result

Final score

215 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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