FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.93 – 418.9

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 38.37Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 39.53Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 41.03Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.7 ±9.8

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 230.58Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 32.06Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 156.26Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5689, 9263, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5689, 9263, 1334

Auto

27.8 24%

Teleop

67.4 58%

Endgame

21.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 9262, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4678, 9262, 865

Auto

59.7 14%

Teleop

239.9 58%

Endgame

116.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score118.9pts

Blue projected score418.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -300
Score range: 72–466
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 263.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231Season APEX563.7

27.8Auto59.7

67.4Teleop239.9

21.6Endgame116.6

43Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	87
teleop	91	173
endgame	40	59
foul	0	30
total	158	349

Result

Final score

158 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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