FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.99 – 486.81

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 768

Prediction correct · off by 183.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.3 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 24.72Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 109.66Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 59.61Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821.7 ±8.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -13.86Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 188.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 312Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 7902, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10514, 7902, 7757

Auto

55.1 28%

Teleop

90.7 46%

Endgame

49.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7659, 1325, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7659, 1325, 1114

Auto

106.8 22%

Teleop

254.3 52%

Endgame

123.5 25%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194pts

Blue projected score486.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -292.8
Score range: 147–534
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 876 vs event baseline 260.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.3Season APEX821.7

55.1Auto106.8

90.7Teleop254.3

49.4Endgame123.5

6Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	146
teleop	33	447
endgame	34	175
foul	5	0
total	108	768

Result

Final score

108 – 768

Prediction correct · off by 183.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.