FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.05 – 108.03

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±10.4

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 90.88Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 24.32Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 68.85Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±10.5

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX -4.5Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 54.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 58.09Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9562, 9659, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9562, 9659, 7476

Auto

38.6 22%

Teleop

86.7 50%

Endgame

49.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 4308, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11428, 4308, 7712

Auto

41.0 36%

Teleop

57.6 51%

Endgame

14.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score184pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76
Score range: 61–231
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 261.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.6Season APEX342.3

38.6Auto41

86.7Teleop57.6

49.8Endgame14.3

73Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	40
teleop	53	100
endgame	74	45
foul	5	0
total	161	185

Result

Final score

161 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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