FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.95 – 342.68

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.5 ±9.8

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -8.72Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 28.74Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 152.93Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.6 ±9.9

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 55.7Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 179.04Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 107.94Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 5596, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9580, 5596, 2200

Auto

58.3 39%

Teleop

77.6 52%

Endgame

12.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3560, 5406, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3560, 5406, 4907

Auto

75.6 22%

Teleop

185.9 55%

Endgame

75.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score342.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.7
Score range: 126–390
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 261.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.5Season APEX565.6

58.3Auto75.6

77.6Teleop185.9

12.6Endgame75.7

95Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	58
teleop	156	143
endgame	50	123
foul	5	20
total	273	344

Result

Final score

273 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.