FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.02 – 170.07

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±9.8

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 44.89Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 215.54Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 58.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.6 ±10.4

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 130.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 10.51Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 29.07Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6875, 4476, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6875, 4476, 9262

Auto

49.9 16%

Teleop

199.4 64%

Endgame

64.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9569, 3756, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9569, 3756, 4920

Auto

37.3 22%

Teleop

90.6 55%

Endgame

38.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319pts

Blue projected score170.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149
Score range: 123–366
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 263.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.1Season APEX374.6

49.9Auto37.3

199.4Teleop90.6

64.5Endgame38.2

65Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	53
teleop	86	133
endgame	73	56
foul	0	0
total	178	242

Result

Final score

178 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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