FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.83 – 240.19

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±10.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 137.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -4Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 109.31Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.7 ±10.4

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 60.59Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 24.9Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 154.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 7659, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5409, 7659, 11227

Auto

57.5 24%

Teleop

124.4 52%

Endgame

55.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2386, 5689, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2386, 5689, 1360

Auto

63.7 27%

Teleop

107.0 46%

Endgame

63.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score242.8pts

Blue projected score240.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 193–290
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 263.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX376.7

57.5Auto63.7

124.4Teleop107

55.6Endgame63.8

96Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	60
teleop	105	130
endgame	17	74
foul	5	10
total	173	274

Result

Final score

173 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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