FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.78 – 402.62

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±9.3

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 172.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 19.85Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 27.1Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 125.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 244.7Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 32.57Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7520, 5036, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7520, 5036, 772

Auto

36.9 17%

Teleop

126.9 59%

Endgame

50.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 4678, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10015, 4678, 2708

Auto

70.3 18%

Teleop

233.2 59%

Endgame

94.9 24%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score219.8pts

Blue projected score402.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -182.8
Score range: 173–450
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.9Season APEX578.4

36.9Auto70.3

126.9Teleop233.2

50.8Endgame94.9

147Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	68
teleop	126	109
endgame	34	93
foul	0	15
total	222	285

Result

Final score

222 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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