FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.48 – 504.45

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

293 – 693

Prediction correct · off by 158 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±10.4

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 98.28Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 28.28Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 38.92Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.7 ±9.8

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 105.61Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 136.77Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 262.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 1334, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7902, 1334, 4976

Auto

45.9 28%

Teleop

82.2 50%

Endgame

36.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3161, 865, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

504.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3161, 865, 2056

Auto

105.2 21%

Teleop

303.5 61%

Endgame

87.9 18%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score165.5pts

Blue projected score504.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -339
Score range: 118–551
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 986 vs event baseline 259.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357Season APEX750.7

45.9Auto105.2

82.2Teleop303.5

36.1Endgame87.9

87Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	137
teleop	147	370
endgame	69	186
foul	5	0
total	293	693

Result

Final score

293 – 693

Prediction correct · off by 158 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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