FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.26 – 187.75

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±10.4

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 31.36Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 74.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 39.59Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 63.7Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 100.75Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 23.3Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9575, 9562, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9575, 9562, 5672

Auto

33.0 23%

Teleop

60.5 42%

Endgame

49.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4976, 11227, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4976, 11227, 6875

Auto

29.6 16%

Teleop

116.0 64%

Endgame

36.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score145.3pts

Blue projected score187.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: 92–241
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 293.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX309.9

33Auto29.6

60.5Teleop116

49.2Endgame36.4

13Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	31
teleop	9	147
endgame	33	30
foul	0	0
total	51	208

Result

Final score

51 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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