FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.85 – 422.41

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 601

Prediction correct · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±11

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX -2.41Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 29.42Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 57.84Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.1 ±9.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 284.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 113.69Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 24.47Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11428, 5672, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11428, 5672, 2706

Auto

14.5 17%

Teleop

38.2 44%

Endgame

34.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1114, 7200, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1114, 7200, 9263

Auto

63.5 15%

Teleop

235.3 57%

Endgame

115.4 28%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score422.4pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -337.6
Score range: 38–469
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 258.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.4Season APEX638.1

14.5Auto63.5

38.2Teleop235.3

34.7Endgame115.4

79Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	110
teleop	36	361
endgame	25	125
foul	0	5
total	86	601

Result

Final score

86 – 601

Prediction correct · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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