FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.87 – 240.49

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

317 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.8 ±10

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 47.5Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -2.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 182.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.2 ±9.8

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 48.58Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 164.24Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 27.67Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3560, 9575, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3560, 9575, 1325

Auto

65.6 29%

Teleop

106.7 47%

Endgame

56.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9262, 5406, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9262, 5406, 4920

Auto

50.3 21%

Teleop

126.1 54%

Endgame

58.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score240.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.6
Score range: 181–286
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 257.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.8Season APEX541.2

65.6Auto50.3

106.7Teleop126.1

56.1Endgame58.9

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	74
teleop	159	189
endgame	80	45
foul	10	15
total	317	323

Result

Final score

317 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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