FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.86 – 223.1

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 131.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 42.45Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 1.56Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.2 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 2.55Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 154.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 66.33Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4069, 6875, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4069, 6875, 9580

Auto

16.8 10%

Teleop

102.4 61%

Endgame

47.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5870, 1360, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5870, 1360, 7476

Auto

23.4 11%

Teleop

127.9 60%

Endgame

62.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175.9pts

Blue projected score223.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.2
Score range: 130–269
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 257.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290Season APEX372.2

16.8Auto23.4

102.4Teleop127.9

47.7Endgame62.8

136Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	48
teleop	101	148
endgame	2	82
foul	30	20
total	164	298

Result

Final score

164 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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