FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.19 – 264.38

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585 ±9.9

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 159.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 202.61Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -34.69Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±9.8

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 111.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 32.3Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 120.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7520, 4476, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7520, 4476, 6975

Auto

68.7 21%

Teleop

189.5 58%

Endgame

68.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9562, 772, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9562, 772, 11227

Auto

41.5 16%

Teleop

134.3 51%

Endgame

86.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score327.2pts

Blue projected score264.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.8
Score range: 218–373
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 663 vs event baseline 256.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585Season APEX356.6

68.7Auto41.5

189.5Teleop134.3

68.4Endgame86.9

70Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	41
teleop	225	137
endgame	127	58
foul	0	10
total	417	246

Result

Final score

417 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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