FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

302.9 – 412.52

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

230 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±9.8

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 137.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 12.79Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 152.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.8 ±9.8

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 113.06Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 265.03Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 34.43Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 7659, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10015, 7659, 1305

Auto

65.7 21%

Teleop

185.0 60%

Endgame

58.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3161, 4678, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3161, 4678, 9659

Auto

36.9 9%

Teleop

244.2 61%

Endgame

121.2 30%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score302.9pts

Blue projected score412.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.6
Score range: 257–459
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 255.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.9Season APEX569.8

65.7Auto36.9

185Teleop244.2

58.1Endgame121.2

29Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	91
teleop	96	141
endgame	59	90
foul	0	35
total	230	357

Result

Final score

230 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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