FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.51 – 133.02

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.6 ±9.8

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 38.79Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 49.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 159.32Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 29.85Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 83.46Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 4976, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2708, 4976, 2200

Auto

76.1 31%

Teleop

157.0 64%

Endgame

13.1 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 7757, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 7757, 5596

Auto

41.2 30%

Teleop

60.5 45%

Endgame

33.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score247.5pts

Blue projected score133pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.5
Score range: 86–295
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 259.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.6Season APEX208.5

76.1Auto41.2

157Teleop60.5

13.1Endgame33.5

34Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	25
teleop	62	12
endgame	26	29
foul	15	0
total	193	66

Result

Final score

193 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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