FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.82 – 200.13

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 113.47Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 14.35Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 131Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 52.32Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 108.65Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 39.16Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 5689, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4907, 5689, 865

Auto

63.6 25%

Teleop

151.9 60%

Endgame

37.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 7200, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2706, 7200, 10514

Auto

42.3 22%

Teleop

124.4 64%

Endgame

28.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.8pts

Blue projected score200.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.7
Score range: 153–306
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 259.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416Season APEX282.2

63.6Auto42.3

151.9Teleop124.4

37.8Endgame28.5

12Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	18
teleop	174	123
endgame	66	85
foul	0	0
total	308	226

Result

Final score

308 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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