FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

462.59 – 230.46

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 87.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.7 ±9.8

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 165.75Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 142.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 154.47Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±11

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 40.01Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 86.13Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 104.32Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 4069, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1360, 4069, 10015

Auto

63.2 14%

Teleop

260.6 56%

Endgame

143.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3560, 3161, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3560, 3161, 9562

Auto

29.9 13%

Teleop

126.3 57%

Endgame

67.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score462.6pts

Blue projected score230.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.1
Score range: 184–509
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 257.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.7Season APEX385.5

63.2Auto29.9

260.6Teleop126.3

143.2Endgame67.1

82Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	60
teleop	199	133
endgame	118	123
foul	0	10
total	383	326

Result

Final score

383 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 87.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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