FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.08 – 92.98

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.4 ±10.5

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 65.67Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -17.42Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 208.83Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±11

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 30.25Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 42.23Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 20.5Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9263, 6975, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9263, 6975, 4678

Auto

40.2 16%

Teleop

137.5 55%

Endgame

72.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3560, 2706, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3560, 2706, 2708

Auto

30.6 35%

Teleop

14.1 16%

Endgame

43.6 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257.1pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.1
Score range: 40–310
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 293.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.4Season APEX257.1

40.2Auto30.6

137.5Teleop14.1

72Endgame43.6

27Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	193	34
endgame	112	41
foul	0	0
total	322	96

Result

Final score

322 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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