FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.51 – 615.77

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 775

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.8 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 68.84Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 44.13Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 84.54Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 887.4 ±9.3

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 237.46Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 247.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 130.95Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7476, 9262, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7476, 9262, 7712

Auto

58.5 30%

Teleop

97.8 50%

Endgame

39.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 1114, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

615.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4678, 1114, 1305

Auto

120.6 20%

Teleop

334.7 55%

Endgame

156.1 26%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score197.5pts

Blue projected score615.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -418.3
Score range: 152–662
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 253.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.8Season APEX887.4

58.5Auto120.6

97.8Teleop334.7

39.6Endgame156.1

45Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	74
teleop	112	439
endgame	34	262
foul	5	0
total	171	775

Result

Final score

171 – 775

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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