FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.68 – 47.46

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±10.5

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 50.5Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 7.06Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 260.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.6 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 13.11Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 35.48Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -1.13Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 11428, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4920, 11428, 2056

Auto

82.7 27%

Teleop

186.9 61%

Endgame

34.4 11%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7659, 772, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7659, 772, 9575

Auto

32.2 66%

Teleop

9.2 19%

Endgame

7.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score317.7pts

Blue projected score47.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.2
Score range: 1–364
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 255.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.4Season APEX294.6

82.7Auto32.2

186.9Teleop9.2

34.4Endgame7.7

88Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	20
teleop	118	13
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	241	33

Result

Final score

241 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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