FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.65 – 255.87

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.9 ±10

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -11.03Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 212.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 47.77Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.5 ±9.8

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 207.17Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 40.65Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 8.05Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6975, 1325, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6975, 1325, 1334

Auto

48.4 19%

Teleop

129.2 51%

Endgame

74.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 2708, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 2708, 5672

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

136.6 54%

Endgame

70.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score249.7pts

Blue projected score255.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 203–303
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 259.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.9Season APEX434.5

48.4Auto47.9

129.2Teleop136.6

74.2Endgame70.1

140Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	50
teleop	16	167
endgame	4	62
foul	5	5
total	59	284

Result

Final score

59 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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