FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

288.47 – 356.86

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.6 ±9.8

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 61.48Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 57.18Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 169.81Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±10.4

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 160.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 119.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 77.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4976, 2706, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4976, 2706, 5406

Auto

60.8 21%

Teleop

154.5 53%

Endgame

76.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 5409, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9569, 5409, 4308

Auto

75.4 21%

Teleop

184.2 52%

Endgame

93.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score288.5pts

Blue projected score356.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.4
Score range: 241–404
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 258.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.6Season APEX376

60.8Auto75.4

154.5Teleop184.2

76.1Endgame93.1

53Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	45
teleop	172	202
endgame	35	66
foul	0	0
total	259	313

Result

Final score

259 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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