FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.89 – 220.58

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±10.4

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 123.26Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 44.67Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 45.96Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.3 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 104.53Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 93.36Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 22.69Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 9659, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 9659, 3756

Auto

53.0 25%

Teleop

132.3 62%

Endgame

27.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 2386, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11227, 2386, 5596

Auto

44.5 21%

Teleop

104.0 48%

Endgame

67.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score213.9pts

Blue projected score220.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 167–268
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 260.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.4Season APEX309.3

53Auto44.5

132.3Teleop104

27.4Endgame67.2

83Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	48
teleop	70	98
endgame	42	43
foul	0	30
total	131	219

Result

Final score

131 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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