FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.69 – 238.54

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.4 ±9.3

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -11Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 161.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 115.14Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 43.49Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 48.1Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 146.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5870, 7520, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5870, 7520, 4907

Auto

48.8 19%

Teleop

150.7 58%

Endgame

62.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 9263, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10514, 9263, 865

Auto

38.1 16%

Teleop

145.1 61%

Endgame

54.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score265.7pts

Blue projected score238.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: 192–313
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 262.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.4Season APEX321.7

48.8Auto38.1

150.7Teleop145.1

62Endgame54

105Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	161	103
endgame	62	17
foul	15	0
total	265	140

Result

Final score

265 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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