FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.08 – 18.61

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 101.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.7 ±10.4

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 22.2Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 47.17Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 42.71Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.6 ±9.8

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 6.75Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 36.63Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -24.77Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7659, 9262, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7659, 9262, 5689

Auto

42.8 38%

Teleop

39.0 35%

Endgame

30.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 7476, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 7476, 9580

Auto

30.1 100%

Teleop

-4.5 0%

Endgame

-23.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score18.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.5
Score range: -29–160
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 266.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.7Season APEX284.6

42.8Auto30.1

39Teleop-4.5

30Endgame-23.2

27Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	3	77
endgame	3	39
foul	0	0
total	25	135

Result

Final score

25 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 101.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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