FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.72 – 206.95

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±9.8

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 155.18Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -5.44Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 74.98Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.1 ±10.5

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 157.64Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 48.61Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 0.7Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 919, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10015, 919, 1334

Auto

21.2 9%

Teleop

158.6 70%

Endgame

47.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2200, 4920, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2200, 4920, 6975

Auto

35.0 19%

Teleop

121.3 64%

Endgame

32.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.7pts

Blue projected score207pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.8
Score range: 159–273
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 269.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.3Season APEX485.1

21.2Auto35

158.6Teleop121.3

47.4Endgame32.1

91Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	108
teleop	109	45
endgame	25	0
foul	10	0
total	154	153

Result

Final score

154 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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