FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.66 – 233.88

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 157.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±10.4

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 31.31Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 62.21Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 7.14Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662 ±9.9

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 27.57Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 208.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -1.73Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5036, 2706, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5036, 2706, 6875

Auto

27.5 30%

Teleop

42.0 46%

Endgame

21.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7712, 2056, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 2056, 3560

Auto

68.4 29%

Teleop

154.6 67%

Endgame

9.1 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score233.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.2
Score range: 53–282
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.8Season APEX662

27.5Auto68.4

42Teleop154.6

21.6Endgame9.1

148Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	121
teleop	86	297
endgame	24	85
foul	5	0
total	147	503

Result

Final score

147 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 157.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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