FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.73 – 357.88

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±10.4

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 28.51Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 120.24Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 39.98Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.3 ±9.4

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 206Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 18.13Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 133.75Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 1305, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9659, 1305, 5689

Auto

46.2 25%

Teleop

92.6 49%

Endgame

49.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 10514, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1325, 10514, 9569

Auto

63.2 18%

Teleop

202.1 56%

Endgame

92.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score188.7pts

Blue projected score357.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.1
Score range: 136–411
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 293.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.4Season APEX502.3

46.2Auto63.2

92.6Teleop202.1

49.3Endgame92.5

29Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	80
teleop	104	284
endgame	42	95
foul	0	0
total	193	459

Result

Final score

193 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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