FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.68 – 168.85

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.3 ±10.4

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 96.27Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 66.96Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 51.45Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.8 ±11

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 83.8Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 29.02Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 56.03Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3161, 2386, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3161, 2386, 4976

Auto

50.9 25%

Teleop

100.1 50%

Endgame

49.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9659, 11428, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9659, 11428, 2708

Auto

34.0 20%

Teleop

83.4 50%

Endgame

50.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 120–264
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 271.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.3Season APEX238.8

50.9Auto34

100.1Teleop83.4

49Endgame50.1

57Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	179	5
endgame	48	6
foul	0	0
total	263	30

Result

Final score

263 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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