FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

363.56 – 467.05

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

346 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.1 ±9.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 161.3Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 128.92Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 73.34Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.7 ±9.4

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 100.22Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 176.17Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 190.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5406, 11227, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5406, 11227, 4308

Auto

69.3 19%

Teleop

206.8 56%

Endgame

94.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1305, 865, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1305, 865, 1325

Auto

91.4 19%

Teleop

278.9 59%

Endgame

102.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.6pts

Blue projected score467.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.5
Score range: 316–515
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 829 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.1Season APEX636.7

69.3Auto91.4

206.8Teleop278.9

94.9Endgame102.1

63Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	91
teleop	170	284
endgame	108	108
foul	0	0
total	346	483

Result

Final score

346 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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