FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.13 – 334.09

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

340 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±10.4

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 147.49Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 82.35Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 153.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±9.8

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 221Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -20.5Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 133.59Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 7757, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 7757, 1360

Auto

59.1 16%

Teleop

207.4 56%

Endgame

105.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4678, 9575, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4678, 9575, 7902

Auto

59.7 18%

Teleop

172.1 51%

Endgame

102.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.1pts

Blue projected score334.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 286–431
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX522.3

59.1Auto59.7

207.4Teleop172.1

105.5Endgame102.7

108Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	74
teleop	179	195
endgame	65	78
foul	0	15
total	340	362

Result

Final score

340 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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