FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.34 – 250.22

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

339 – 376

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±10.4

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -1.68Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 147.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 104.84Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.3 ±9.8

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 14.51Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 116.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 119.31Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5672, 9569, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5672, 9569, 4069

Auto

17.9 7%

Teleop

145.7 58%

Endgame

85.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5596, 5409, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5596, 5409, 7520

Auto

57.8 23%

Teleop

126.6 51%

Endgame

64.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score250.3pts

Blue projected score250.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 203–297
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 262.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.5Season APEX487.3

17.9Auto57.8

145.7Teleop126.6

85.7Endgame64

56Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	79
teleop	180	192
endgame	107	85
foul	5	20
total	339	376

Result

Final score

339 – 376

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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