FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.34 – 105.05

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.7 ±9.3

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 117.11Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 217.46Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 4.77Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.3 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 17.87Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 106.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -19.33Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 1114, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4907, 1114, 3756

Auto

78.9 24%

Teleop

149.0 45%

Endgame

104.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5689, 9562, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5689, 9562, 5870

Auto

-4.9 0%

Teleop

67.7 69%

Endgame

35.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.3pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.3
Score range: 58–386
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 261.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.7Season APEX226.3

78.9Auto-4.9

149Teleop67.7

104.1Endgame35.6

39Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	38
teleop	220	80
endgame	116	27
foul	0	0
total	450	145

Result

Final score

450 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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