FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.32 – 139.13

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.7 ±9.3

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 4.37Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 52.73Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 225.22Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.9 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 71.24Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 70.35Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -2.46Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 10514, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 10514, 4476

Auto

63.7 23%

Teleop

172.4 61%

Endgame

44.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4976, 9263, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4976, 9263, 9580

Auto

22.2 16%

Teleop

87.8 64%

Endgame

26.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score282.3pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.2
Score range: 92–329
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 263.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.7Season APEX288.9

63.7Auto22.2

172.4Teleop87.8

44.5Endgame26.4

84Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	14
teleop	184	44
endgame	61	21
foul	0	10
total	309	89

Result

Final score

309 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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